In the foreign exchange market on Monday, the US dollar showed a slight shock consolidation trend. The US dollar index rose to 96.44, the lowest fell to 96.20, closing at 96.33. Europe and the United States rose to 1.1391, the lowest fell to 1.1357, closing at 1.1369.
The US dollar index fell slightly on Monday, but remained at a distance of nearly two weeks high. The market is worried about the global economic slowdown and the data showing that the Chinese economy has slowed significantly in 2018. The US dollar has risen for the first time in a single week since mid-December last year, and was boosted by the hopes of thawing of Sino-US trade tensions and stronger-than-expected US industrial production data. Entering 2019, a weaker dollar is the consensus of traders in the foreign exchange market. They bet that the Fed will stop raising interest rates and the economy will slow down after fiscal stimulus last year. But last week, the US dollar recorded its first week of gains since mid-December, boosted by hopes of a moderate trade tension between China and the US and stronger-than-expected US industrial production data.
Sino-US trade frictions have put pressure on the Chinese economy. The latest data shows that the growth of the world’s second largest economy has slowed further in the fourth quarter of 2018. The market seems to accept the data with confidence, as the data is roughly in line with expectations. The euro rose slightly by 0.2% against the dollar, but is still close to the two-week low of $1.1353 hit last Friday. Later this week, investors will pay close attention to the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday to see if policymakers will respond to the worsening global economic outlook, but it may be too early to change policy directions.
On the other hand, the pound/dollar climbed steadily, and British Prime Minister Teresa May will present a motion on Monday to explain her proposed retreat. In the following week, lawmakers can propose alternatives. In addition, the Australian dollar is hardly affected by China’s economic growth data. If Australia’s largest trading partner, China’s demand, has experienced a sharp decline, it will have an impact on Australia’s local assets.
From a technical point of view, the US dollar index was supported above 96.20 on Monday, and the rebound was blocked below 96.45, closing at 96.33, which means that the dollar may maintain a pullback after a short-term rebound. If the US dollar index rebounds below 96.45 today, the target of the market callback will point to 96.20-96.10. Today, the short-term resistance of the US dollar index is 96.40-96.45, and the short-term important resistance is 96.55-96.60. Today, the short-term support of the US dollar index is at 96.20-96.25, and the short-term important support is at 96.05-96.10. Europe and the United States rebounded below 1.1395 on Monday, the callback was supported above 1.1355, closing at 1.1369, meaning that Europe and the United States may maintain a rebound after a short-term correction. If the European and American callbacks are supported above 1.1350 today, the rebound target will point to 1.1390-1.1405. Today, the short-term resistance in Europe and America is 1.1385-1.1390, and the short-term important resistance is 1.1405-1.1410. Today, short-term support in Europe and America is at 1.1350-1.1355, and short-term important support is at 1.1335-1.1340.
Today, the US dollar is short-term short-selling. It breaks the stop loss. If there is a profit of 30 points or more, it will set a good stop to win. Before the US market opens, all pending orders withdrawn will be withdrawn. This strategy is suitable for margin and can be used as a reference.
US dollar index: It can be sold at the upper limit of 96.45-96.10, effectively breaking the 15 point stop loss, and the target is at the lower limit of the range.
EUR/USD: You can buy at the lower limit of 1.1405—1.1355, effectively break the 25-point stop loss and target the upper limit of the range.
GBP/USD: You can sell at the upper limit of 1.2925—1.2845, effectively break the 35-point stop loss and target the lower limit of the range.
USD/CHF: You can sell at the upper limit of 1.0000—0.9930, effectively break the 25-point stop loss and target the lower limit of the range.
USD/JPY: You can sell at the upper limit of 109.80-109.35, effectively break the 25-point stop loss and target the lower limit of the range.
AUD/USD: You can sell at the upper limit of 0.7180—0.7120, effectively break the 25-point stop loss and target the lower limit of the range.
USD/CAD: You can buy at the lower limit of 1.3330—1.3260, effectively break the 40-point stop loss and target the upper limit of the range.
Gold: You can sell at the upper limit of the range of 1284.00—1273.00, effectively break the $3 stop loss and target the lower limit of the range.
Silver: You can sell at the upper limit of 15.35-15.10, effectively break the stop loss of $0.10, and target at the lower limit of the range.